Oscars and the Women Who Predict Them

This is the first year in recent memory where the Female Best Actor race is more crowded than the Male Best Actor race. I guess there just weren’t a lot of Strong Male Roles this year, except in ensemble pieces with no definitive lead. This over-crowding of the women’s category has lead to some clever campaigning, which I do not see paying off for either studio.

Lightletainer of the year, Alicia Vikander, is being campaigned for in the supporting category, as is Rooney Mara, however anyone who’s seen either of those films can see they were leads. Question is, how many voters actually watched them both?

My pick for the winner is in bold.

Best Actor, Female, Leading Role

1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saiorse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl or Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy or Rooney Mara, Carol

Best Actor, Female, Supporting Role

1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Jane Fonda, Youth or Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl or Ex Machina

Best Actor, Male, Leading Role

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Matt Damon, The Martian
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Michael Caine, Youth

Best Actor, Supporting, Male

1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
5. Christian Bale, The Big Short

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Emma Donoghue, Room
2. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
3. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
4. Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
5. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs

Best Original Screenplay

1. Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies

2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out

3. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight

4. Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

5. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Director

1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

2. Adam McKay, The Big Short

3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

5. Ridley Scott, The Martian

Best Picture

I have a weird gut feeling that there’s only going to be eight nominees this year. And if I’m right, and right about which eight, I will have finally achieved my goal of seeing every Best Picture nominee in a given year before the nominations are announced. Unless Straight Out of Compton some how magically gets in, I’ll have seen them all. Knowing my luck, that’s what will happen.

1. Spotlight
2. Carol
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Martian
6. Room
7. Inside Out
8. The Big Short
9. Brooklyn
10. Bridge of Spies

Join me tomorrow at 5am PT to see if I’m right!

 

 

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